" I could clone Einstein several hundrend times, and yet still unable to work on the mortgages they covered"- WB
When I say Feds involved, the Feds are truly involved(see this)!!! Take a look at the Bottom part of post 1, I mentioned that who is next and today we see blood on the streets again, as you see I only suggest you o hold if you can take a devaluation of up to 50% in the few months till 2009 period where I foresee many uncertainty and unwinding is half way thru!! They say we are half way there but 62 trillion of CDS show that we are less than half way thru, the market acts as a sweeper, to clear the path of dust and dirt. Feds need to act super fast and clear AIG illiquid position as soon as possible, more money created in thin air they fight the gold bug no longer!!! 20 day bill, 76 day bills what will the rates look like you tell me, see this: (bloomberg)
“No one and I emphasize no one can beat the forces of nature and the market force! WB followers of then hear that market are irrational, and now when all are still swimming with their tops off, I assume he is behind their listing out his Buys when the downturn strips all holders to their birthday suits!” Many large corporations are still holding cash and we look at Microsoft, Coke, we look at sovereign wealth funds, the new hedge funds, Funds that promote 100% capital perseverance, C.Ds! There are still companies that are worth taking a look and it is all about timing! We all know that any sane human would be stupid to try time markets; I suggest is study behavioral patterns, take the big downfalls to compare, what are the reactions when bottoms show!
You will argue that we have technical indicators, hell I love TA they study price behavior, but its those things that is futile as it will tell u the volume, distribution, the buying pattern, the selling pattern, at a certain level, a certain price, with the assumption that price have a memory! Bear in mind, Bear!! That we are now in a situation that is so new, and such a glum that no one can explain to what extent the severity of toxic loans are going to haunt us to!!!
Look at stocks that are able to produce results to downstream and upstream in the line, look into their book values, their debts, their tangible assets and assets, think of their management as a operation focused which is to boost on their productivity and efficiency! In such a situation, we need to tell ourselves there will be no more easy money, we’ve been working smart too long, so smart we buried ourselves! Analyst reports are a bunch of excrement full of foul smell and waste, would you follow the guide of analyst who keeps that Strong BUY but yet he doesn’t buy!!! Why give the call when you are not confident with your interpretation.
Buy stocks that are undervalued, I would just say that Warren bought stocks that have 2x the value of what he was paying, or what he valued them at and you should be doing what he has been doing for so long! Cut the speculation act, do not play with thin lines unless you have a closet full of cash, even full of cash are you sure all this cash won’t be deemed as FIAT when dollar loses its front line defense! The dollar lose sight of gold today, and it shows that efforts to manipulate gold prices are gone, Feds books also need tidying! What is that news going on now Wachovia is going to merge? Read post 1 bottom. I have been nothing but spot on, we have more derailing to go, either we see a strong nationalization of assets, a big wave of mergers and acquisitions, or else we see a massive devaluation of equity, real estate and debased currency!
All the options above are assumptions and it up to you to judge yourself give me some comments. AIG have a wide range of products, and cannot be allowed to fail… think yourself if government buys their dirty loans, and gives them ample cash, what does that imply? Would you buy a business that has a central weight in all aspects of life in 130 countries and basically all walks of life!! I am not stating a buy cause I am worry to what extent the dilution will affect the price but take a look at its holdings vS assets Vs debts Vs premium.
At the time writing China investment Corp has begun its actions spreading its possible wing to take in Morgan Stanley which was about to take Wachovia in a merger, i reiterate many companies are sitting on cash piles, waiting the correct moment like this to buy a US business, Chinese are real capitalist compared to Americans.(Buffett Style) Wa Mu have no other options but to Auction itself out, would anyone take a stake in that company?
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