Wednesday, September 24, 2008

USD vs Debt

When we talk about a debt estimate we are looking at 9.5 trillion before the new stimulus package, before the numerous bail outs this year, before even considering the amount of money they have pumped into the system based on all the socialism practices that the federal reserves have made, and the US is a debt nation everybody knows that from 2000 national debt was at the 5 trillion level and till 2008 an estimate of 9.5 trillion before considering any stimulus package, before calculating the increase in debt from all the subprime bails. Dollar have declined from a height of 120( 2001) to the lows of yesterday 76 meaning there would be a 24 cents differences of the dollar compared to the par value of the index 100.

A whopping 44 points which is about 1/3 of the value in dollars with the increase of 5 trillion dollars in debt and not to mention the debt to gdp has risen to about 70% imagine the margin of squeezing the dollar for future bail out, if they told u the value of cds are 62 trillion, that is without considering the CDOs and the private leverages some hedge funds are enjoying at the period of wealth. We might not be able to figure out the entire valuation of the toxic derivatives, hence how would the government according to the paulson plan value the assets of american subprime holders. And the significance of increasing the 1 trillion debt is 20% of the accumulated debt from 2000-2008f. does this imply the dollar to take a 6 % plunge in value to justify and adjust to the level of debt?
If social security and medicare were to be demolished and the burden on the government would be eased and since free market in the US is already History why not allocate these social security and medicare in terms of income tax rebates, unemployment funding, etc, does it even make a difference at this level, we see the chart above demonstrates the wonderful governance of kennedy, Carter, i would not highlight Nixon as he sold the gold at bottom . But it was the administration of Reagans that had instill the values of being in debt to the nation, while the nation is in debt everyday, passing on cost to every dollar bill holder, it is discouraging for banks to hold cash, for the nation to hold cash, so they will spend and consume to boost the economy hence, consumption is the highest weightage in the gdp of america , and there is when producing becomes consuming nation. Thats when inflation will kill a nation of consumers, a family of wolves will eventually fight when food sources are scarce.


We need to understand that the RTC could made a profit as the scale of a bailout was significant enough, we did not see 40 to 1 leverage back then, we did not see 150 to 1 leverage back then, when the bank could put 10% payment of home loans and use the remaining 90% to give approval to another 9 more applicants, that already a 10-1 ratio in bank deposit to loan application, add that to a mortgage applicant who refinances his home for another, thats another 20 application, and add that to the securitization of these mortgages, from Freddie and Fannie, and allowing mortgage companies to remortgage the assets to issue more mortgages, allowing americans to take up more homes, and lastly take into consideration hedge funds buying these MBS, CDS, CDO and the insurers, the 700 billion is not going to make a significance.


What we should be tainting with all the money left is to stimulate spending and growth in sectors that are mildly affected, stipulate supply sectors to grow and start producing more instead of buying, we are not a warehouse to store, Americans have the greatest minds and manipulators in history. Nobody likes to live in an era where the tax is going to be very high, property tax, income tax, the unneccessary spending is only going to prolong the pain and damage, currency pressure will lift the rates in the future if not, only to see capitulation in dollar holders. Gold would definitely benefit.





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