Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Commodities, inflation, and rate cuts

Who dare to bet that interest rates are going up, nobody as the feds wont have the balls to raise them, it is either maintained or lower down, the bet now is to lower another 50 basis point, then it would be a carry trade instrument, many have shown exposure to currency positions that are not known to the public and with such sudden spike in borrowing banks mights start to have carry trade using the dollar in the next 5 years, The japanese delayed and protected their banks and today we see that the peak was never revisited, when the printing continues inflation will roam the US and prices of commodities have no where but up !

I believe that there is no way the bancrupt US government can continue to support their acts of proping the dollar and pushing it out to the consumers, if slowdown happens in a more severe manner, consumption appetite will fall, and we have slimmer us citizens in terms of size and wallet. Long term rates have no where to go but up if we take a look at the printing engines production, and i would urge commodity holders to not forget the fact that commodities have strong fundamentals and they are scarce, and expensive to produce, new oil are going to cost around 65-70 per barrel, u tell me who would sell ?

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