Thursday, October 9, 2008

TRading with a game plan

Respect Stops, understand your personal risk tolerance!! These two investment principles are there for a reason please practice it!!

 Current markets are for trading only, no more buy and hold unless you are a cash printing machine. Volatility shown in the US swings are far greater than any swing trader could handle, i do not know how many a-b-c are there in the dow in a day, but hit n run is definitely the strategy of the year. Look at sectors that will be positive to any positive news in asset prices, as we are beginning to look at home buyers, the first herd of  kiasu people that want to profit from home prices that decline 30% - 45%.

UNDER stand that the financial market is still in being wrench and squeezed for any liquidity, the only way to reignite the banking system is thru continuous lending and by hoarding cash, bankers understand it is also not a smart move, as they are still paying interest to deposits, and they need to move the cash one way or another, make use of rate cuts to hedge in lending risk that what the feds are asking you to do, with the emergence of two bank holdings, deposits might be a way to slowly save them from the troubled loans, but remember policies and fiscal measures must be efficient and effective to show any help or improvement in financial markets. I believe there are some experts that say a bull run emerges from recessions and it is often during the recessive periods people gambling and speculative alter-egos come out and tell them maybe we have gone thru enough, or maybe it is not that bad after all, and the bull rides on that mentality.

Buffet has seen enough to understand every recession or stock plummet gone through would only lead to a stronger bounce up wards until another financial wreck appear. Gold is looking strong and if it can hold at this level for this two weeks i believe it has to go up, DOLLAR is only temporary supported by the foreign funds unlocking their capital from regional and emerging markets, commodities, bonds, etc. Till we see any fundamental change in the dollar i dont see why the 81 or 8x level must hold for long. We have to wait the bear rally cannot hold then all hell break lose for the dollar, the onli hope we have is to transfer more dollar holdings abroad, transfer more inflation abroad from america. Maybe they can inflate the dollar away from troubles.

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