Sunday, October 5, 2008

yen, signals the demise of carry trade, commodity and gold

yen has been on the rise since my buy call, and if one has timed the entry well, you would be in PT level 1, and please only play with house money on the moment, there would be anytime a movement to counter the appreciating dollar, it looks like there are a few waves more for the dollar if we take an elliot view, but practice caution, gold has suffered some pullback and is in wave 2, i am looking to add a some position from my first which is bought at an average of 760- 780, one must take a long term perspective when investing in gold as it is first not yielding anything in terms of dividend or interest, but we can be quite sure that it will keep our purchasing power compared to the rest.

There have been some movements, in china RMbi carry trading, and HK dollar as both are looking at great fundamentals, onli to worry is the HK dollar peg, if the dollar realli retreats we are going to see a rise in it?? u tell me euro have been a great short but the selling pressure is slowly reducing and fundamental wise although we are looking at bail outs and the spending of euros in currency swapping we are to realise that the European are only facing subprime and CDOs valued at half of the US, the banks are also hoarding up the Euros, lending cost has shot up and that will surely boost the value of the Euros. 

Oil is still a scarce commodity and we are looking at petrol stations that are sold out in the gas they have in storage, demand has pulled back but opec will reduce the supply once demand is too much, they wish to stabilize the price at the 100 dollar level, as it is a  supply and demand game in the long term consider a position in the future markets.

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