Friday, October 10, 2008

What the US has as an EDGE

When i first mention, the unemployment will shoot up and the paulson plan will not work, it is the mere fact that the root of the problem is still far from being addressed. Liquidity and recapitalization of banks are the way to go if they want to avoid a coming depression. Depression is no more a word, a status that the Americans might face if the fiscal spending, and required policies are not being done.

If banks cannot find the confidence to lend there must be a root that leads to the lack of confidence, and they must look into the underlying problem and not just treat the symptoms, it is like giving steriods or morphine to patients, putting them thru euphoria onli to return sick later on. Recapitalization can happen in many ways, we are hearing call from great economist that the bail out are a must, the feds are doing the right thing, yes they are doing the right thing if they want to prolong the effects and create a softlanding, but is that what the nation wants? The plummets speaks for itself, the loss in market cap speaks for itself. The market anticipates, and if the nation feels its in a recession it goes down 5-- points, if it feels a depression is coming it wipes off 800 points twice to show that they must be priced into zero earnings and future bancruptcy occurence.

What we must know is that the method of inflating out of the problem if applied and coordinated at a global scale will surely reach the root, when one person is deviant, it does mean its wrong, it is only against the norm, but when every banker, every troubled nation is doing it, it is going to be acceptable. Tell something wrong a hundred thousand times, people might believe u. Honorable Jim ROgers, have made a lot of right calls, and has retired a long time ago, he only invest and invest for his future generation, for his self fulfillment, for the entire excitement of investing. He would not mislead the government if he wants the future is good for his decendents, he realize that the feds and bankers are wrong, he acknowledge that markets should be allowed to fail, let the weak banks be possessed and resold to the stronger banks, guarantee the deposits of the citizens, encourage savings schemes ( monthly fixed amount savings, inflation adjusted savings plan, savings plan interest yield that are attractive, introduce different tier interest yields for more savings)

Let those who made mistakes fail but softly, nationalization by the UK and european banks are a good move, but they have to start selling the failed banks assets to the stronger banks as it is also unwise to be burdening the taxpayers money, foreclosures and defaults have to be reviewed and delayed to allow the nation a longer period of repayment and flexibility, sudden increase in defaults and foreclosures benefit no one at this level of crisis, the feds should allow a certain group that are affected to delay their mortgage defaults and repay in payments that are longer tenure and lower monthly payments, but at a higher interest rates, a ten year mortgage loan if restructured in to a 15 , or 20 year mortgage repayment could help delay the pain in holders.

Banks are required to provide transparency on their holdings in MBS, CDO,CDS, or any assets, and allow the SEC to regulate the transaction and strength of the banks before intervene and making capital injections, either thru buying their shares, issuance of warrants, nationalization, set up a regulatory body that will run auctions of troubled assets write off from the balance sheets, dilution effects might take in but it will pump the capital into banks.

The US are now flooded with financial experts as layoff have taken the job off many people, this cannot continue, and they realise that and this is why the entire world is working on different avenues to save the us from going broke! China would have to step up as they have been building their muscles for just too long to flex it infront of the judges, if they make the move they might replace the worlds greatest economy and allow the financial market be shore with greater wave of liquidity and capital. There will be more corporations going bust, more weak companies will die, market correction is not over, support levels are stupid, Technical analysis can only be used in markets where fear and volatility do not dominate, it is ok to be panic and sell stupidly, but when herds are reacting from fear of losing everything, it is no more a panic sell issue, it is capitulation. Nikkei lost almost 20percent HSI is fluctuating at a 7-8 % range downwards, if this is not capitulation i do not know what is capitulation.

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